Mystery Wins Slots

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1. Mystery Wins Slots Game
2. China Mystery Slots Youtube

Wizard
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Recently I went to a talk by Peter Liston about how he turned $500 into millions playing 'mystery progressive' slots. He has a book about it titled Million Dollar Slots.
What is a mystery progressive, you might ask? It is a progressive jackpot that is guaranteed to go off randomly by a certain maximum jackpot size. I assume the way they work is a point is chosen randomly from a uniform distribution between the seed amount and 'hit point,' which is the maximum the jackpot can grow. When an event causes the jackpot to go above the predestined hit point then the jackpot is awarded and it resets back to the seed amount.
Based on Peter Liston's book, these games have evidently been around Australia for a while. I've never paid much attention to them, but see there are some at the Red Rock by WMS. To make things more complicated, they each have two mystery jackpots. Some pictures I just took are below.
So, the question is at what point do the jackpots get so large they become a positive expected value bet?
I have done the math but will post the problem for the pleasure of the other math-heads on the forum. Let me given you the following assumptions:
1. Before considering the progressives, the base return of the game is 90%.
2. For every dollar WON both progressives increase by $0.00581879.
3. Minor jackpot must be hit by $50.
4. Major jackpot must be hit by $500.
Here are some questions to get the ball rolling:
1. What is a formula for the increase in expected value given the two jackpot sizes?
2. For the sake of argument, assume only one jackpot at a time. How large would it have to be for the return to be exactly break even?
Also, not that it is pertinent to the math, but does anyone know what the seed values are? My best guess is $20 and $200.
Some mystery jackpot games. Click on any image for a larger version.

Rules screens

-slaps forehead- So that's how they work out a 'must be won by' jackpot.... it's a pre-determined value, not a value calculated on the fly.
That makes more sense, I'd be trying to work out how they could do it 'as you go' (e.g. after every increase there is some chance the jackpot is won... how do you make it guaranteed and also a relatively flat probability for every amount).

That makes more sense, I'd be trying to work out how they could do it 'as you go' (e.g. after every increase there is some chance the jackpot is won... how do you make it guaranteed and also a relatively flat probability for every amount).

They could also do it 'as you go.' For example, let's say the meter was at $30, must hit by $50, and should go up by $0.05. The probability of winning the jackpot should be 0.05/(50-30) = 0.0025. Mathematically, the odds are the same as if the win point were predestined. I think it is easier to explain the concept assuming the predestined jackpot way. MathExtremist may know how the games are actually programmed, but again, it is a moot question to the player.Not positive but I think the seeds are 25 and 250

Not positive but I think the seeds are 25 and 250

You can see my picture of Mystical Fortunes has a Major jackpot under $250.

Mystery Wins Slots Game

Not surprisingly, the rules are confusing.

China Mystery Slots Youtube

It says the increment increases. I think that should say the METER increase.
Also, I think the increment should actually decrease as it approaches the guarantee, thus enabling it to sustain a longer period of a high jackpot without actually hitting the guarantee threshold.
After all, does it automatically pay when it hits the guarantee?There was a lot of discussion of those types of slots on the thread here. You may have missed it.

There was a lot of discussion of those types of slots on the thread here. You may have missed it.

You're right; I did. There are not many of Mystery Progressive machines in Vegas, which is why I ignored that thread. I just skimmed it and it didn't address the mathematical questions I am interested in addressing.

Rules screens
-slaps forehead- So that's how they work out a 'must be won by' jackpot.... it's a pre-determined value, not a value calculated on the fly.
That makes more sense, I'd be trying to work out how they could do it 'as you go' (e.g. after every increase there is some chance the jackpot is won... how do you make it guaranteed and also a relatively flat probability for every amount).

That makes more sense, I'd be trying to work out how they could do it 'as you go' (e.g. after every increase there is some chance the jackpot is won... how do you make it guaranteed and also a relatively flat probability for every amount).

They could also do it 'as you go.' For example, let's say the meter was at $30, must hit by $50, and should go up by $0.05. The probability of winning the jackpot should be 0.05/(50-30) = 0.0025. Mathematically, the odds are the same as if the win point were predestined. I think it is easier to explain the concept assuming the predestined jackpot way. MathExtremist may know how the games are actually programmed, but again, it is a moot question to the player.Not positive but I think the seeds are 25 and 250

Not positive but I think the seeds are 25 and 250

You can see my picture of Mystical Fortunes has a Major jackpot under $250.

Mystery Wins Slots Game

Not surprisingly, the rules are confusing.

China Mystery Slots Youtube

It says the increment increases. I think that should say the METER increase.
Also, I think the increment should actually decrease as it approaches the guarantee, thus enabling it to sustain a longer period of a high jackpot without actually hitting the guarantee threshold.
After all, does it automatically pay when it hits the guarantee?There was a lot of discussion of those types of slots on the thread here. You may have missed it.

There was a lot of discussion of those types of slots on the thread here. You may have missed it.

You're right; I did. There are not many of Mystery Progressive machines in Vegas, which is why I ignored that thread. I just skimmed it and it didn't address the mathematical questions I am interested in addressing.
Hopefully Mango, CM, Miplet, or ME will find this thread (sorry if I'm leaving anybody out). This is an easy advantage play that has not been written about much, yet.Assumptions 1 and 2 in reality, I believe #2 is dependent on #1. I say this based on other people's claims on the advantage point at other casinos which I felt just to be dangerous. There are many YT videos on these which may show how much the jumps are for. With so much obfuscation in modern slots, they seem so much harder for an observer to decipher based on mere observance due to mystery symbols. Also, couldn't the payback percentage be changed once it became advantageous with SBG since they could just disable the machine for the idle time and turn it back on tight.
I definitely have Liston's book on the list to get. It seems interesting based on your interview.